Newmark Group (Newmark Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Newmark Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Newmark Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Newmark Group (Newmark Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Newmark Group Inc (NAS:NMRK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NMB:Germany

Address

125 Park Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://www.nmrk.com

Newmark Group Inc is a commercial real estate advisory firm. It offers services, including leasing and corporate advisory services, investment sales, commercial mortgage brokerage, appraisal and valuation, project management, and property, among others. Newmark offers a diverse array of integrated services and products designed to meet the full needs of both real estate investors/owners and occupiers. The company provides real estate strategic consulting and systems integration services to CFI's global clients including many Fortune 500 and Forbes Global 2000 companies, owner-occupiers, government agencies, healthcare and higher education clients.

Executives

Jay Itzkowitz	director	NEW YORK HOCKEY HOLDINGS, LLC, 200 PARK AVENUE SOUTH SUITE 1610, NEW YORK NY 10003
Howard W Lutnick	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman
Stephen M Merkel	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer	C/O BGC PARTNERS, INC., 499 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mcintyre Kenneth A Jr	director	C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., WEST 80 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Barry M Gosin	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ESPEED, INC., 110 EAST 59TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Virginia S Bauer	director	C/O NEWMARK GROUP, INC., 125 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Cantor Fitzgerald, L. P.	director, 10 percent owner	110 EAST 59TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Cf Group Management Inc	director, 10 percent owner	135 EAST 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10022
Michael Snow	director	C/O GFI GROUP INC., 55 WATER STREET, NEW YORK NY 10041
Bgc Partners, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	499 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Peter F Cervinka	director	C/O NEWMARK GROUP, INC., 125 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Michael J. Rispoli	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NNN 2003 VALUE FUND, LLC, 1551 N. TUSTIN AVENUE, SUITE 200, SANTA ANA CA 92705
John H Dalton	director	50 OLD WEBSTER ROAD, OXFORD MA 01540
James R Ficarro	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O NEWMARK GROUP, INC., 125 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017