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NORD (Nordicus Partners) Predictability Rank


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What is Nordicus Partners Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Nordicus Partners Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Nordicus Partners Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Nordicus Partners Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
280 S. Beverly Drive, Suite 505, Beverly Hills, CA, USA, 89103
Nordicus Partners Corp is a financial consulting company specializing in providing Nordic companies with the possible conditions to establish themselves in the U.S. market, taking advantage of management's combined several years of experience in the corporate sector, serving in different capacities both domestically and globally. The company's core competencies lie in assisting Danish as well as Nordic and international companies in different areas of corporate finance activities, such as business valuation, growth strategies, attracting capital for business & company acquisition, and sales.
Executives
Partners Aps Gk 10 percent owner MESTERLODDEN 3B, GENTOFTE G7 2820
Henrik Rouf 10 percent owner 468 N. CAMDEN DR., SUITE 350, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Henrik Oerbekker 10 percent owner 94, RUE DES AUBEPINES, L-1145, LUXEMBOURG N4 2449
Khristine L Carroll officer: EVP Commercial Operations 229 ANDOVER STREET, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Mark R Tauscher director
Oneill William J Jr director 4000 HOLLYWOOD BLVD STE 650N, HOLLYWOOD FL 33021
Michael L Barretti director 78 E OLYMPIA AVE, C/O CARDIO TECH INTERNATIONAL INC, WOBURN MA 01810-2057
Michael F Adams director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 78 E OLYMPIA AVE, C/O CARDIO TECH INTERNATIONAL INC, WOBURN MA 01810-2057
David Crispino Volpe officer: Chief Financial Officer 235 STONEBRIDGE DRIVE, NASHUA NH 03063
Eric G Walters officer: Vice President and CFO C/O MFIC CORP, 30 OSSIPEE RD., NEWTON MA 02464
Andrew Martin Reed officer: VP of Science and Technology 12106 WEST 75TH LANE, ARVADA CO 80005
Philip Alan Beck other: General manager 1230 CREEKSIDE CROSSING, STILLWATER MN 55082
Jeremiah E Dorsey director P.O. BOX 910, QUECHEE VT 05059
Leslie M Taeger officer: CFO
Douglas E Whittaker officer: President Gish Biomedical