NRDE (Nu Ride) Predictability Rank

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What is Nu Ride Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nu Ride Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Nu Ride Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Nu Ride Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Nu Ride Inc (OTCPK:NRDE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2300 Hallock Young Road, Lordstown, OH, USA, 44481

Website

https://www.lordstownmotors.com

Nu Ride Inc formerly Lordstown Motors Corp is an electric vehicle innovator developing high-quality light duty commercial fleet vehicles, with the Endurance all electric pick-up truck as its first vehicle being launched in the Lordstown, Ohio facility. The Company is in its final design and testing phase related to their production of the Endurance and has yet to bring a completed product to market.

Executives

Stephen S. Burns	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ADVANCED MECHANICAL PRODUCTS, INC., 4540 ALPINE ROAD, BLUE ASH OH 45242
Anderson Joseph B Jr	director	MERITOR, INC., 2135 WEST MAPLE ROAD, TROY MI 48084-7186
Edward T. Hightower	officer: President	C/O LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP., 2300 HALLOCK YOUNG ROAD, LORDSTOWN OH 44481
Donna Bell	officer: EVP, PROD CRTN, ENG & SUPP CHN	C/O LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP., 2300 HALLOCK YOUNG ROAD, LORDSTOWN OH 44481
Jane Ritson-parsons	officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	C/O LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP., 2300 HALLOCK YOUNG ROAD, LORDSTOWN OH 44481
Laura J. Soave	director	C/O LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP., 2300 HALLOCK YOUNG ROAD, LORDSTOWN OH 44481
Daniel A Ninivaggi	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 4600, NEW YORK NY 10153
Melissa A. Leonard	officer: EVP, GEN. COUNSEL & SECRETARY	C/O LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP., 2300 HALLOCK YOUNG ROAD, LORDSTOWN OH 44481
Adam B Kroll	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	475 QUAKER MEETING HOUSE RD, HONEOYE FALLS NY 14472
Rebecca A Roof	officer: Interim CFO	C/O LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP., 2300 HALLOCK YOUNG ROAD, LORDSTOWN OH 44481
Chuan D. Vo	officer: Vice President of Propulsion	C/O LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP., 2300 HALLOCK YOUNG ROAD, LORDSTOWN OH 44481
Julio C. Rodriguez	officer: Chief Financial Officer	315 CHELSEY CT., ALPHARETTA GA 30004
Darren Post	officer: Vice President of Engineering	C/O LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP., 2300 HALLOCK YOUNG ROAD, LORDSTOWN OH 44481
Phil Richard Schmidt	officer: Chief Production Officer	C/O LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP., 2300 HALLOCK YOUNG ROAD, LORDSTOWN OH 44481
Shane Brown	officer: Chief Production Officer	2300 HALLOCK YOUNG ROAD, LORDSTOWN OH 44481