First Holdco (NSA:FIRSTHOLDCO) Predictability Rank

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

NSA:FIRSTHOLDCO First Holdco PLC NSA:FIRSTHOLDCO
63 GF Score
Price ₦65.60
GF Value ₦36.61
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is First Holdco Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Holdco Predictability Rank Related Terms

NSA:FIRSTHOLDCO
63GF Score
First Holdco PLC NSA:FIRSTHOLDCO
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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First Holdco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is First Holdco (NSA:FIRSTHOLDCO) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, First Holdco stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of ₦65.60 is trading 79.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of ₦36.61. GuruFocus considers First Holdco to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for NSA:FIRSTHOLDCO:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: ₦36.61 vs. price of ₦65.60 (79.2% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 63/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the NSA:FIRSTHOLDCO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

First Holdco Business Description

Address 35 Marina, Samuel Asabia House, PO Box 5216, Lagos, NGA
First Holdco PLC is a Nigerian financial services Group. The principal activities of the company are mainly the provision of Commercial Banking, Investment Banking, Asset Management, Trusteeship, Securities Brokerage and Insurance Brokerage. Its reportable segments are 1. Commercial Banking Business Group: It provides both individual and corporate clients/ customers with financial intermediation services, 2 Investment Banking and Asset Management Business Group: It provides advisory, asset management, markets and private equity services to a large institutional (corporations and governments) clientele, as well as merchant banking services., and 3. Others. The majority of revenue is derived from the Commercial Banking Business Group. Geographically, key revenue is derived from Nigeria.
63GF Score

Get the complete analysis for NSA:FIRSTHOLDCO

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

₦65.60
Price
₦36.61
GF Value