AWL Agri Business (NSE:AWL) Predictability Rank


NSE:AWL AWL Agri Business Ltd NSE:AWL
66 GF Score
Price ₹182.03
GF Value ₹446.78
Valuation Significantly Undervalued
! 1 Warning Sign
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What is AWL Agri Business Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AWL Agri Business Predictability Rank Related Terms

NSE:AWL
66GF Score
AWL Agri Business Ltd NSE:AWL
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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AWL Agri Business Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is AWL Agri Business (NSE:AWL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, AWL Agri Business stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of ₹182.03 is trading 59.3% below its estimated GF Value™ of ₹446.78. GuruFocus considers AWL Agri Business to be Significantly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for NSE:AWL:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: ₹446.78 vs. price of ₹182.03 (59.3% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 66/100 with 1 warning sign

No single metric tells the full story. See the NSE:AWL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

AWL Agri Business Business Description

Other Exchanges 543458:India
Address Near Navrangpura Railway Crossing, Fortune House, Ahmedabad, GJ, IND, 380 009
Adani Wilmar Ltd was a Joint venture between two world'wide corporate groups, Adani group - the leaders in Energy & Private Infrastructure Conglomerate and Wilmar Group- Agri business group. It is in the Fast-moving consumer goods(FMCG) business comprising mainly of Edible Oil and Food & FMCG Segment. It is also engaged in Industry Essential commodities such as Castor Derivatives, Oleo Derivatives, De-Oils Cake etc. It sells its entire range of packed products inedible oil and food FMCG segment under the following brands: Fortune, Kings, Raag, Alpha, Bullet, Fryola, Jubilee, Aadhar, Kohinoor, Charminar and Trophy. It has three segments Edible Oils; Food & FMCG; and Industry Essentials of which majority of revenue comes from Edible Oils. It generates majority of revenue Within India.
66GF Score

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Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

₹182.03
Price
₹446.78
GF Value