GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » Milton Industries Ltd (NSE:MILTON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Milton Industries (NSE:MILTON) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2017. Start your Free Trial

What is Milton Industries Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Milton Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Milton Industries Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Milton Industries's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Milton Industries (NSE:MILTON) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » Milton Industries Ltd (NSE:MILTON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
BOM:523732 BOM:526490 BOM:542155 NSE:WIPL BOM:516003 BOM:532994 BOM:540954 OSTO:SCA A UFPI SSD TSX:WFG TSX:SJ BOM:532548 XLIS:COR TSX:CFP SZSE:002043 BSP:DXCO3 XKRX:025900 SHSE:600189 TSX:IFP
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Ashram Road, 1/2, Chitra-Ami Appartment, Opposite La Gajjar Chamber, Ahmedabad, GJ, IND, 380009
Website
https://www.miltonindustries.in
Milton Industries Ltd is engaged in the manufacturing of laminated sheets and other allied products. The firm produces artificial leather cloth and glass fiber reinforced epoxy (GFRE) sheets. It also manufactures, exports high-pressure laminates, industrial laminates, laminated boards, flooring laminates, artificial leather cloth, and other products. The business operates in three segments: Laminate, Rexine, and GFRE, of which the majority of the revenue comes from the GFRE division. The company's products are applicable on walls, doors, windows, cupboards, tabletops, hotels, cash counters, and home kitchens. The majority of the revenue comes from the Indian market.

Milton Industries (NSE:MILTON) Headlines

No Headlines