NSFDF (NXT Energy Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is NXT Energy Solutions Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NXT Energy Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NXT Energy Solutions Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » NXT Energy Solutions Inc (OTCPK:NSFDF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SFD:Canada

Address

3320 -17th Avenue SW, Suite 302, Calgary, AB, CAN, T3E 0B4

Website

https://www.nxtenergy.com

NXT Energy Solutions Inc is a Canadian company which offers geophysical service to the upstream oil and gas industry using its gravity-based Stress Field Detection (SFD) remote-sensing survey system. The SFD is an airborne survey system that is used in the oil and natural gas exploration industry to help in identifying areas with hydrocarbon reservoir potential. The SFD system is used to accelerate onshore and offshore exploration over any terrain with the objective of reducing the total time, cost and risk of the exploration cycle, with no environmental footprint or community impact.

Executives

George Liszicasz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	C/O NXT ENERGY EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES, 750 840 7TH AVE SW CALGARY CANADA, ALBERTA A1 T2G 4A2
Brian Paul Kohlhammer	director	6612 SILVERVIEW DRIVE NW, CALGARY A0 T3B 3K8
Jarmila Marie Manasek	officer: Vice-President Finance	C/O SUITE 700, 840-7 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2G 0T7
Bin Ali Bin Rashid Al Nuaimi His Highness Sheikh Al Hassan	director	C/O SUITE 700, 840-7 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2P 3G2
Stephens Group Inc	10 percent owner	111 CENTER ST, STE 2300, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Sfd Investment Llc	10 percent owner	111 CENTER STREET SUITE 2500, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Donald E Foulkes	director
Caneghan Robert Van	director	123 RADCLIFF RD, STATEN ISLAND NY 10305
Douglas James Rowe	director	246 ARTIST VIEW WAY, CALGARY A1 T3Z 3NI
Dennis Hunter	director	PO BOX 9069, LAS ANGELES CA 95405
Scott John Schrammar	officer: Secretary