What is Northern Technologies International Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Northern Technologies International Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Northern Technologies International (Northern Technologies International) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4201 Woodland Road, P.O. Box 69, Circle Pines, MN, USA, 55014
Northern Technologies International Corp, or NTIC is a United States-based firm that develops and markets environmentally beneficial products and services world-wide either directly or through a network of joint ventures, distributors, and agents. It operates through two segments which include ZERUST products and services and Nature-Tec products. Its main business is providing corrosion prevention solutions that are marketed under the ZERUST brand. The company also sells a portfolio of bio-based and biodegradable (compostable) polymer resin compounds and finished products marketed under the Nature-Tec brand. The ZERUST brand generates a vast majority of the revenue for the company.
Executives
| Nancy E. Calderon |
director |
1285 WAKEFIELD TRAIL, RENO NV 89523 |
| Richard Nigon |
director |
CEDAR POINT CAPITAL, 150 SOUTH 5TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402 |
| Sarah E. Kemp |
director |
4201 WOODLAND ROAD, PO BOX 69, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014 |
| Pinho Cristina Lucia Duarte |
director |
4201 WOODLAND ROAD, PO BOX 69, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014 |
| Falkenhausen Konstantin Von |
director |
4201 WOODLAND ROAD, PO BOX 69, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014 |
| Barbara D. Colwell |
director |
4201 WOODLAND ROAD, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014 |
| G Patrick Lynch |
director |
4201 WOODLAND ROAD, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014 |
| Pierre Chenu |
director |
118B AVENUE W CHURCHILL, PO BOX 15, BRUSSELS C9 1180 |
| Mark J Stone |
director |
689 5TH AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Inter Alia Holding Co |
10 percent owner |
|
| Juliane I Lynch |
10 percent owner |
23205 MERCANTILE ROAD, BEACHWOOD OH 44122 |
| Koh Soo Keong |
director |
4201 WOODLAND ROAD, POST OFFICE BOX 69, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014 |
| Tilman Bernhard Frank |
director |
4201 WOODLAND ROAD, POST OFFICE BOX 69, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014 |
| Sunggyu Lee |
director |
4912 MCKENNA CT, COLUMBIA MO 65203 |
| Ramani Narayan |
director |
4275 CONIFER CIRCLE, OKEMOS MI 48864 |
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