NTIC (Northern Technologies International) Predictability Rank

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What is Northern Technologies International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Northern Technologies International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Northern Technologies International Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Northern Technologies International Corp (NAS:NTIC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4201 Woodland Road, P.O. Box 69, Circle Pines, MN, USA, 55014

Website

https://www.ntic.com

Northern Technologies International Corp, or NTIC is a United States-based firm that develops and markets environmentally beneficial products and services world-wide either directly or through a network of joint ventures, distributors, and agents. It operates through two segments which include ZERUST products and services and Nature-Tec products. Its main business is providing corrosion prevention solutions that are marketed under the ZERUST brand. The company also sells a portfolio of bio-based and biodegradable (compostable) polymer resin compounds and finished products marketed under the Nature-Tec brand. The ZERUST brand generates a vast majority of the revenue for the company.

Executives

Sarah E. Kemp	director	4201 WOODLAND ROAD, PO BOX 69, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014
Nancy E. Calderon	director	1285 WAKEFIELD TRAIL, RENO NV 89523
Richard Nigon	director	CEDAR POINT CAPITAL, 150 SOUTH 5TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Pinho Cristina Lucia Duarte	director	4201 WOODLAND ROAD, PO BOX 69, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014
Falkenhausen Konstantin Von	director	4201 WOODLAND ROAD, PO BOX 69, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014
Barbara D. Colwell	director	4201 WOODLAND ROAD, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014
G Patrick Lynch	director	4201 WOODLAND ROAD, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014
Pierre Chenu	director	118B AVENUE W CHURCHILL, PO BOX 15, BRUSSELS C9 1180
Mark J Stone	director	689 5TH AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Inter Alia Holding Co	10 percent owner
Juliane I Lynch	10 percent owner	23205 MERCANTILE ROAD, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Koh Soo Keong	director	4201 WOODLAND ROAD, POST OFFICE BOX 69, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014
Tilman Bernhard Frank	director	4201 WOODLAND ROAD, POST OFFICE BOX 69, CIRCLE PINES MN 55014
Sunggyu Lee	director	4912 MCKENNA CT, COLUMBIA MO 65203
Ramani Narayan	director	4275 CONIFER CIRCLE, OKEMOS MI 48864