Nutraceutical International (Nutraceutical International) Predictability Rank

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What is Nutraceutical International Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nutraceutical International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nutraceutical International (Nutraceutical International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Nutraceutical International Corp (NAS:NUTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.nutraceutical.com

Nutraceutical International Corp was incorporated in Delaware in 1993. The Company is a manufacturer, marketer, distributor and retailer of branded nutritional supplements and other natural products sold to and through domestic health and natural food stores. Internationally, it markets and distributes branded nutritional supplements and other natural products to and through health and natural product distributors and retailers. Its core business is to acquire, integrate and operate businesses in the natural products industry that manufacture, market and distribute branded nutritional supplements. The Company manufactures and sells nutritional supplements and other natural products under numerous brands, including Solaray, KAL, Dynamic Health, Nature's Life, LifeTime, Natural Balance, NaturalCare, Health from the Sun, Pioneer, Nutra BioGenesis, Life-flo, Organix South, Heritage Store and Monarch Nutraceuticals. It owns neighborhood natural food markets, which operates under the trade names The Real Food Company, Thom's Natural Foods, Cornucopia Community Market and Granola's. It also owns health food stores, which operates under various trade names, including Fresh Vitamins and Peachtree Natural Foods. The Company's products includes vitamins and minerals, herbs, specialty formulas, personal care products, liquid nutritional products, homeopathics, functional foods and other products.

Executives

J Kimo Esplin	director	C/O NUTRACEUTICAL INTERNATIONAL CORP, 1400 KEARNS BLVD, PARK CITY UT 84060
Bain Capital Investors Llc	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Fund Iv Lp	10 percent owner	C/O BAIN CAPITAL LLC, TWO COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02199
Bcip Trust Associates Lp	10 percent owner	C/O BAIN CAPITAL LLC, 111 HUNINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Robert C Gay	director	C/O BAIN CAPITAL INC TWO COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Matthew S Levin	director	BAIN CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET BOSTON MA 02116
Associates Bcip	10 percent owner