NXTC (NextCure) Predictability Rank

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What is NextCure Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NextCure Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

NextCure Predictability Rank Related Terms

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NextCure Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » NextCure Inc (NAS:NXTC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2US:Germany

Address

9000 Virginia Manor Road, Suite 200, Beltsville, MD, USA, 20705

Website

https://www.nextcure.com

NextCure Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company committed to discovering and developing novel, first-in-class immunomedicines to treat cancer and other immune-related diseases by restoring normal immune function. The company's product candidates include; NC410 a fusion protein of LAIR-2, a fusion protein that, in combination with pembrolizumab, demonstrated early evidence of clinical activity in colorectal (CRC) and ovarian cancers, and LNCB74, an ADC that is directed to B7-H4, a clinically validated cancer target. The company is also seeking a partner for its other clinical programs such as NC525 and NC318 and its preclinical non-oncology programs NC605, for chronic bone diseases and NC181, for Alzheimer's disease.

Executives

Anne Elizabeth Borgman	director	9000 VIRGINIA MANOR ROAD, SUITE 200, BELTSVILLE MD 20705
Ellen Feigal	director	C/O XENCOR INC., 111 WEST LEMON AVENUE, MONROVIA CA 91016
Kevin G. Shaw	officer: Sr VP, Legal Affairs	9000 VIRGINIA MANOR ROAD, SUITE 200, BELTSVILLE MD 20705
Sourav Kundu	officer: Sr VP, Dev. & Mfg.	9000 VIRGINIA MANOR ROAD, SUITE 200, BELTSVILLE MD 20705
Han Myint	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O NEXTCURE, INC., 9000 VIRGINIA MANOR ROAD, SUITE 200, BELTSVILLE MD 20705
Timothy Mayer	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O NEXTCURE, INC., 9000 VIRGINIA MANOR ROAD, SUITE 200, BELTSVILLE MD 20705
Sol Langermann	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O NEXTCURE, INC., 9000 VIRGINIA MANOR ROAD, SUITE 200, BELTSVILLE MD 20705
Steven P. Cobourn	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NEXTCURE, INC., 9000 VIRGINIA MANOR ROAD, SUITE 200, BELTSVILLE MD 20705
Linda Liu	officer: SVP, Research	C/O NEXTCURE, INC., 9000 VIRGINIA MANOR ROAD, SUITE 200, BELTSVILLE MD 20705
Michael Richman	director, officer: President & CEO	2635 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., HOUSTON TX 77381
John G Houston	director	C/O ARVINAS, INC., 5 SCIENCE PARK, 395 WINCHESTER AVE., NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Garry A Nicholson	director	C/O TESARO, INC., 1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Anand Mehra	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Michael Powell	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
James Healy	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025