OABI (OmniAb) Predictability Rank

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What is OmniAb Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

OmniAb Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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OmniAb Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » OmniAb Inc (NAS:OABI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5980 Horton Street, Suite 600, Emeryville, CA, USA, 94608

Website

https://www.omniab.com

OmniAb Inc offers therapeutic antibody discovery technologies. It focuses on enabling the rapid development of therapeutics by pushing the frontiers of drug discovery technologies. Its technology platform is designed to enable the efficient discovery of high-quality, fully human antibodies for a wide range of diseases. The heart of the OmniAb technology platform is the Biological Intelligence of its proprietary transgenic animals, including OmniRat, OmniMouse, and OmniChicken, that have been genetically modified to generate antibodies with human sequences which are naturally optimized through in vivo affinity maturation.

Executives

Kurt A Gustafson	officer: EVP, Finance and CFO	11388 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Matthew W Foehr	director, officer: President & CEO	11119 NORTH TORREY PINES RD #200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Charles S Berkman	officer: See Remarks	11085 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037
John L Higgins	director	11119 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Steven Love	director	C/O OMNIAB, INC., 5980 HORTON STREET, SUITE 600, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Carolyn R Bertozzi	director	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Avista Capital Managing Member V, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	65 E. 55TH STREET, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Avista Capital Partners V Gp, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	65 E. 55TH STREET, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Avista Capital Partners (offshore) V, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	65 E. 55TH STREET, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Avista Capital Partners V, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	65 E. 55TH STREET, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jennifer R. Cochran	director	C/O LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 3911 SORRENTO VALLEY BOULEVARD, STE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Thompson Dean	director, 10 percent owner	65 EAST 55TH STREET, 18TH FLOOR, C/O AVISTA CAPITAL PARTNERS, NEW YORK NY 10022
Avista Acquisition Lp Ii	director, 10 percent owner	C/O AVISTA CAPITAL HOLDINGS, LP, 65 EAST 55TH STREET, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Avista Acquisition Gp Llc Ii	director, 10 percent owner	C/O AVISTA CAPITAL HOLDINGS, LP, 65 EAST 55TH STREET, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
David F Burgstahler	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WARNER CHILCOTT HOLDINGS CO., LTD., 100 ENTERPRISE DRIVE, ROCKAWAY NJ 07866