OFLX (Omega Flex) Predictability Rank

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What is Omega Flex Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Omega Flex Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Omega Flex Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Omega Flex Inc (NAS:OFLX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

451 Creamery Way, Exton, PA, USA, 19341

Website

https://www.omegaflexcorp.com

Omega Flex Inc is a manufacturer of flexible metal hoses, which is used in a variety of ways to carry gases and liquids within their particular applications. Omega sells its products under the TracPipe, CounterStrike, DoubleTrac, DEF-Trac and MediTrac brands. It serves various markets which include construction, manufacturing, transportation, petrochemical, pharmaceutical, and other industries. Geographically Omega Flex, Inc operates in the United States. The company derives revenues from the manufacture and sale of flexible metal hose and accessories.

Executives

Susan B. Asch	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	451 CREAMERY WAY, EXTON PA 19341
Matthew Francis Unger	officer: Vice President - CFO	C/O OMEGA FLEX, INC., 451 CREAMERY WAY, EXTON PA 19341
Dean W. Rivest	officer: President	451 CREAMERY WAY, EXTON PA 19341
Edwin B. Moran	officer: Executive Vice President	451 CREAMERY WAY, EXTON PA 19341
Timothy P. Scanlan	officer: Secretary	213 COURT STREET, MIDDLETOWN CT 06457
Mark F Albino	director, officer: COO & Exec VP	451 CREAMERY WAY, EXTON PA 19341
Stewart B Reed	director	260 NORTH ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
Kevin R Hoben	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	451 CREAMERY WAY, EXTON PA 19341
Derek Glanvill	director	10088 CARTERS MANOR DRIVE, LADUE MO 63124
Omega Flex, Inc.	officer: Sr. Vice President	451 CREAMERY WAY, EXTON PA 19341
James M Dubin	director	ONE MADISON PLACE, HARRISON NY 10528
Paul James Kane	officer: VP - Finance	1085 NICOLE DRIVE, NEWTOWN SQUARE PA 19073
Steven A Treichel	director	451 CREAMERY WAY, EXTON PA 19341
Reed Estate Of John E	10 percent owner	260 NORTH ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
David K Evans	director	517 PYLON DRIVE, RALEIGH NC 27606