GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Permex Petroleum Corp (OTCPK:OILCF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

OILCF (Permex Petroleum) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2018. Start your Free Trial

What is Permex Petroleum Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Permex Petroleum Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Permex Petroleum Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Permex Petroleum's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Permex Petroleum Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Permex Petroleum Corp (OTCPK:OILCF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSXV:JEC TSXV:TTG XCNQ:JBR TSXV:WCE XCNQ:SHP TSXV:NGY TSXV:CART.H XCNQ:BDR TSXV:XL TSXV:CBV HKSE:00883 COP TSX:CNQ EOG MIC:NVTK OXY HES FANG EQT TPL
Traded in Other Exchanges
75P:Germany OIL:Canada
Address
666 Burrard Street, Suite 500, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6C 2X8
Website
https://www.permexpetroleum.com
Permex Petroleum Corp is a junior oil and gas company with assets and operations across the Permian Basin of West Texas and the Delaware SubBasin of New Mexico. The company through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Permex Petroleum U.S. Corporation owns and operates on private, state, and federal land. The company has a single reportable segment which is acquisition, development, and production of oil and gas properties in the United States.
Executives
Lendrum John J Iii director, 10 percent owner 11999 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 560, HOUSTON TX 77079
James Perry Bryan director, 10 percent owner 100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Mehran Ehsan director, officer: CEO, President 100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Gregory Montgomery director, officer: Chief Financial Officer 100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Douglas Charles Urch director 100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Whelan Barry Leslie Francis director, officer: Chief Operating Officer 100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Scott Sheldon Kelly director 100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Melissa Folz director 2911 TURTLE CREEK BLVD, SUITE 925, DALLAS TX 75219