Paramount Global (Paramount Global) Predictability Rank

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What is Paramount Global Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Paramount Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Paramount Global (Paramount Global) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Paramount Global (NAS:PARA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PARAP.PFD:USA PARAA:USA PARA:Peru PARA:Mexico 0HQM:UK 0VVB:Germany 0VV:Germany 0VVB:Germany 0VV:Germany 0VVB:Germany C1BS34:Brazil PARA:Austria

Address

1515 Broadway, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.paramount.com

Paramount Global is the rebranded recombination of CBS and Viacom that has created a media conglomerate with global scale. CBS contributed Showtime in addition to its television assets--the CBS television network, 28 local TV stations, and 50% of CW, a joint venture between CBS and WarnerMedia. Viacom brought several leading cable network properties, including Nickelodeon, MTV, BET, Comedy Central, VH1, CMT, and Paramount. Paramount Pictures produces original motion pictures and owns a library of 2,500 films, including the Mission: Impossible and Transformers series. Paramount operates a number of streaming services, most notably Paramount+ and Pluto TV.

Executives

Dawn Ostroff	director	3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD, SANTA MONICA CA 91405
Sumner M. Redstone National Amusements Part B General Trust	director, 10 percent owner	846 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, NORWORD MA 02062
National Amusements Inc /md/	director, 10 percent owner	846 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, NORWOOD MA 02062
Naveen K. Chopra	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O 2160 GOLD STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Linda M Griego	director	SOUTHWEST WATER CO, 624 SO. GRAND, STE 2900, LOS ANGELES CA 90017
Phillips Jr Charles E	director	113 WEST 88TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10024
Shari Redstone	director, officer: Vice Chair	C/O CBS CORPORATION, 51 WEST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Frederick Terrell	director	17 STATE STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Nicole Seligman	director	C/O VIACOM INC., 1515 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Christina Spade	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	11 PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10001
Barbara M Byrne	director	C/O CBS CORPORATION, 51 WEST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Christa A Dalimonte	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Secy	C/O VIACOM INC., 1515 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Ronald L Nelson	director
Judith Mchale	director	C/O RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION, 650 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Robert M Bakish	director, officer: President and CEO	AVID TECHNOLOGY, INC., 75 NETWORK DRIVE, BURLINGTON MA 01803