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Polonia Bancorp (Polonia Bancorp) Predictability Rank


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What is Polonia Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Polonia Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Polonia Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Polonia Bancorp (Polonia Bancorp) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Polonia Bancorp Inc is a Maryland corporation that was incorporated in August 2011. The Company is headquartered in Huntingdon Valley and operates as a community-oriented financial institution dedicated to serving the financial services needs of consumers and businesses within its market areas. The Bank is engaged mainly in the business of attracting deposits from the general public and using using such funds to originate loans. Polonia Bank also maintains an investment portfolio. Polonia Bank's primary federal regulator is the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Its loan portfolio consists of one- to four-family residential real estate loans, multi-family and nonresidential real estate loans, home equity loans, commercial loans and consumer loans. Currently, it offers only fixed-rate mortgage products. The one- to four-family residential real estate loans are normally originated with up to 30-year terms, such loans typically remain outstanding for substantially shorter periods because borrowers often prepay their loans in full upon sale of the property pledged as security or upon refinancing the original loan. The multi-family and nonresidential real estate loans are generally secured by apartment buildings, small office buildings and owner-occupied properties. It offers loans with adjustable interest rates tied to a market index in its market area. It offers consumer loans in the form of loans secured by savings accounts or time deposits. The Company has the legal authority to invest in various types of liquid assets, including U.S. Treasury obligations, securities of various federal agencies and municipal governments, corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities, deposits at the FHLB of Pittsburgh and time deposits of federally insured institutions. The Company faces competition for the attraction of deposits and origination of loans. The Company's direct competition for deposits has historically come from the several financial institutions operating in its market areas and, to a lesser extent, from other financial service companies such as brokerage firms, credit unions and insurance companies. The Company is subject to regulation, supervision and examination by the Federal Reserve Board and the OCC, its main federal regulator, and by the FDIC, as insurer of its deposits.
Executives
Kevin J Gallagher officer: Chief Lending Officer of Sub 3993 HUNTINGDON PIKE, 3RD FLOOR HUNTINGDON VALLEY PA 19006
Joseph Svetik director, officer: President and CEO 200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360

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