PBLA (Panbela Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Panbela Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Panbela Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Panbela Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Panbela Therapeutics Inc (OTCPK:PBLA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

712 Vista Boulevard, Suite 305, Waconia, MN, USA, 55387

Website

https://www.panbela.com

Panbela Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing disruptive therapeutics for the treatment of patients with urgent unmet medical needs. The Company's pipeline assets are ivospemin (SBP-101), FlynpoviTM (eflornithine (CPP-1X) and sulindac), and eflornithine (CPP-1X), which provide a multi-targeted approach to reset dysregulated biology present in many types of diseases such as cancer and autoimmunity.

Executives

Jennifer K. Simpson	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O DELCATH SYSTEMS, INC., 810 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 3505, NEW YORK NY 10019
Susan Horvath	officer: V.P. of Finance & CFO	4645 ITHACA LANE, PLYMOUTH MN 55446
Jeffrey E. Jacob	director	712 VISTA BLVD #305, WACONIA MN 55387
Daniel Donovan	director	712 VISTA BLVD #305, WACONIA MN 55387
Paul W. Schaffer	director	712 VISTA BLVD #305, WACONIA MN 55387
Arthur Fratamico	director	C/O FLEXION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 10 MALL ROAD, SUITE 301, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Ryan R. Gilbertson 2012 Irrevocable Trust	10 percent owner	1000 PARKER'S LAKE RD, WAYZATA MN 55391
Ryan Randall Gilbertson	10 percent owner	130 LAKE ST. WEST, WAYZATA MN 55391
Donald Robert Schemel	director	712 VISTA BLVD #305, WACONIA MN 55387
Dalvir S Gill	director	712 VISTA BLVD SUITE 305, WACONIA MN 55387
Scott Kellen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3405 ANNAPOLIS LANE, SUITE 200, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55447
Jeffrey S Mathiesen	director	43334 SEVEN MILE RD., SUITE 1000, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Paulson J Robert Jr	director
Daniel E. Ryweck	officer: Chief Financial Officer	712 VISTA BLVD #305, WACONIA MN 55387
Michael T. Cullen	director	712 VISTA BLVD, #305, WACONIA MN 55387