Pfenex (Pfenex) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Pfenex Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pfenex Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Pfenex Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Pfenex's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Pfenex (Pfenex) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Pfenex Inc (AMEX:PFNX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10790 Roselle Street, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.pfenex.com

Pfenex Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company involved in the development of protein production and bioanalytic technology. The biosimilars portfolio include PF582, for the treatment of patients with retinal diseases; PF530, designed to treat patients with multiple sclerosis; and PF708, to treat osteoporosis patients at high risk of fractures. Its vaccine portfolio consists of Px563L, a novel anthrax vaccine candidate to meet U.S. government demand, funded by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, through the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority.

Executives

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc	10 percent owner	3911 SORRENTO VALLEY BLVD, SUITE 110, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Phillip M Schneider	director	GEN-PROBE INCORPORATED, 10210 GENETIC CENTER DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Jason Grenfell-gardner	director	105 LINCOLN AVENUE BUENA NJ 08310
Patrick K. Lucy	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O PFENEX INC., 10790 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Robin Campbell	director	C/O PFENEX INC., 10790 ROSELLE STREET SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Magda Marquet	director	ALTHEADX INC., 3550 DUNHILL STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
John Mack Taylor	director	C/O PFENEX, INC. 10790 ROSELLE STREET SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Evert B. Schimmelpennink	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O PFENEX INC., 10790 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Shawn Scranton	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PFENEX INC 10790 ROSELLE STREET SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Martin Brenner	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O PFENEX INC., 10790 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Lorianne Masuoka	director	C/O PFENEX INC. 10790 ROSELLE STREET SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Newtyn Management, Llc	10 percent owner	60 EAST 42ND STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10165
Weiss Asset Management Lp	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 16TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Andrew M Weiss	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 16TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Wam Gp Llc	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 16TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116