PGZ (Principal Real Estateome Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Principal Real Estateome Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Principal Real Estateome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Principal Real Estateome Fund Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Principal Real Estate Income Fund (NYSE:PGZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1290 Broadway, Suite 1000, Denver, CO, USA, 80203

Website

https://www.principalcef.com

Principal Real Estate Income Fund is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide high current income with capital appreciation by investing in commercial real estate-related securities. The company does its investments in USA, Australia, Japan, France, Great Britain, Canada, Hong Kong, Germany, Singapore, South Korea, British Virgin Islands and more.

Executives

Laton Spahr	other: President of the Adviser	1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Adams Nicholas	other: Secretary	1055 BROADWAY, 3RD FL, KANSAS CITY MT 64105
Erich Rettinger	officer: Treasurer	1290 BROADWAY SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Brendan Hamill	officer: Secretary	1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80203
Robert Douglas Mcclure	officer: Treasurer	1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80203
Matthew Sutula	other: Interim CCO	1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Jill Kerschen	officer: Treasurer	1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 1850, DENVER CO 80290
Jennifer Craig	officer: Assistant Secretary	1290 BROADWAY SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Michael Sleightholme	other: Officer of Investment Advisor	1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Ernest J Scalberg	other: Trustee	C/O PRINCIPAL REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND, 1290 BROADWAY SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Kathryn Burns	officer: Treasurer	1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Ss&c Technologies Holdings Inc	other: Affiliate of Inv Adviser	80 LAMBERTON RD, WINDSOR CT 06095
Richard Craig Noyes	other: Officer of Investment Advisor	1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Sharon R Akselrod	other: Assistant Secretary	1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Marc Peterson	other: Subadvisor Portfolio Manager	6253 PLEASANT ST, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266