What is Pulse Biosciences Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Pulse Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Pulse Biosciences (Pulse Biosciences) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3957 Point Eden Way, Hayward, CA, USA, 94545
Pulse Biosciences Inc is a novel bioelectric medicine company committed to health innovation using its patented Nano-Pulse Stimulation technology, a revolutionary energy modality that delivers nanosecond-duration pulses of electrical energy, each less than a millionth of a second long, to non-thermally clear targeted cells while sparing adjacent noncellular tissue. NPS technology, also referred to as Nanosecond Pulsed-Field Ablation or nsPFA technology when used to ablate cellular tissue, can be used to treat a variety of medical conditions for which an optimal solution remains unfulfilled. Substantial revenue is generated from North America Majorly due to the sale of systems.
Executives
| Robert W Duggan |
director, 10 percent owner |
611 SOUTH FORT HARRISON AVE, SUITE 306, CLEARWATER FL 33756 |
| Kevin Patrick Danahy |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
50 TEABERRY LANE, BRAINTREE MA 02184 |
| Mitchell E. Levinson |
director |
3957 POINT EDEN WAY, HAYWARD CA 94545 |
| Manmeet Singh Soni |
director |
C/O PHARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085 |
| Van Den Broek Richard |
director |
73 ARCH STREET, 1ST FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Maky Zanganeh |
director |
51 ADAM WAY, ATHERTON CA 94027 |
| Sandra A. Gardiner |
officer: CFO & EVP Admin. and Finance |
CUTERA, INC., 3240 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Shelley D Spray |
director |
C/O PULSE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 3957 POINT EDEN WAY, HAYWARD CA 94545 |
| Laureen Debuono |
director |
|
| Ed Ebbers |
officer: EVP & GM, Dermatology |
3957 POINT EDEN WAY, HAYWARD CA 94545 |
| Kenneth A Clark |
director |
C/O PHARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVE., SUNNYVALE CA 94085 |
| Fogarty Thomas J M D |
director |
C/O VENTURE LAW GROUP, 2800 SAND HILL RD STE 270, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Thierry B. Thaure |
director |
3957 POINT EDEN WAY, HAYWARD CA 94545 |
| Robert J. Greenberg |
director |
12744 SAN FERNANDO ROAD, BLDG. 3, SYLMAR CA 91342 |
| Brian B Dow |
officer: CFO & SVP Admin. and Finance |
5675 GIBRALTAR AVENUE, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
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