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PMV Consumer Acquisition (PMV Consumer Acquisition) Predictability Rank


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What is PMV Consumer Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PMV Consumer Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

PMV Consumer Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PMV Consumer Acquisition (PMV Consumer Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » PMV Consumer Acquisition Corp (OTCPK:PMVCD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CLAQ ARCK GAPA SZZL MNTN DSAC THAC BRPM FNVT ISAA GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
249 Royal Palm Way, Suite No. 503, Palm Beach, FL, USA, 33480
Website
PMV Consumer Acquisition Corp is a special purpose acquisition company.
Executives
Mario J Gabelli 10 percent owner 191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Ggcp, Inc. 10 percent owner 189 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Associated Capital Group, Inc. 10 percent owner 191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Nathan G Miller officer: Chief Financial Officer 347 LUKES WOOD RD, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Lapenta Robert V Jr officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer C/O ASTON CAPITAL, 177 BROAD ST., 12TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901
Marc Gabelli director, officer: Co-CEO & Chairman of the Board 401 THEODORE FREMD AVE, RYE NY 10580
Timothy Foufas officer: Co-President and Secretary 2525 SHADER ROAD, ORLANDO FL 32804
Douglas R Jamieson director, officer: Non-Executive Co-Chairman C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Clarence A Davis director ONEIDA LTD., 163-181 KENWOOD AVENUE, ONEIDA NY 13421
Susan Virginia Watson director C/O INTERPUBLIC GROUP OF COMPANIES, 1271 AVE OF AMERICAS 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Peter Kasper Jakobsen director, officer: Chairman and CEO 2400 WEST LLOYD EXPRESSWAY, EVANSVILLE IL 47721
Pmv Consumer Acquisition Holding Company, Llc 10 percent owner 249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Joseph A. Gabelli officer: President 249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Daniel E. Zucchi director 249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480
John N. Givissis officer: SVP, CAO and Treasurer 249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480