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POR (Portland General Electric Co) Predictability Rank


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What is Portland General Electric Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Portland General Electric Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Portland General Electric Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Portland General Electric Co Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
121 South West Salmon Street, Portland, OR, USA, 97204
Portland General Electric is a regulated electric utility providing generation, transmission, and distribution services in a service territory that includes about half of all Oregon residents and two thirds of the state's business activity. The company owns (wholly or through joint ventures) 3.5 gigawatts of gas, coal, wind, and hydro generation.
Executives
Larry Neal Bekkedahl officer: Sr. Vice President 121 SW SALMON STREET, PORTLAND OR 97204
Benjamin Felton officer: EVP, COO 121 SW SALMON STREET, PORTLAND OR 97204
Maria Angelica Espinosa officer: V. P., General Counsel 121 SW SALMON ST., PORTLAND OR 97204
Brett Michael Sims officer: Vice President 121 SW SALMON ST., PORTLAND OR 97204
John Teeruk Kochavatr officer: Vice President, CIO 121 SW SALMON STREET, PORTLAND OR 97204
Trpik Joseph R Jr officer: SVP, Finance CFO 10 S DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Maria M Pope director C/O PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO., 121 SW SALMON ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
Anne Frances Mersereau officer: Vice President 121 SW SALMON STREET, PORTLAND OR 97204
Dawn L Farrell director C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19898
Marie Oh Huber director C/O EBAY INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Kathryn Jean Jackson director 121 SW SALMON STREET, PORTLAND OR 97204
James P Torgerson director C/O UIL HOLDINGS CORPORATION, 157 CHURCH STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Patricia Salas Pineda director C/O LEVI STRAUSS & CO., 1155 BATTERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Michael Millegan director C/O WIRELESS TELECOM GROUP, INC., 25 EASTMANS RD., PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Michael A Lewis director 77 BEALE ST, P.O. BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177