Pardes Biosciences (Pardes Biosciences) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Pardes Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pardes Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Pardes Biosciences Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Pardes Biosciences's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Pardes Biosciences (Pardes Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Pardes Biosciences Inc (NAS:PRDS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2173 Salk Avenue, Suite 250, PMB No. 052, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92008

Website

https://www.pardesbio.com

Pardes Biosciences Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and commercializing novel oral-antiviral therapeutics to improve the lives of patients suffering from life-threatening disease, starting with the lead product candidate, pomotrelvir (formerly known as PBI-0451), which is in clinical development and intended to treat COVID-19 in adult and pediatric patients. COVID-19 is caused by infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Pomotrelvir inhibits the main coronaviral cysteine protease, a viral protein essential for the replication of all known coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2.

Executives

Fs Development Holdings Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 4500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Foresite Capital Opportunity Fund V, L.p.	10 percent owner	600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 4500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Foresite Capital Fund V, L.p.	10 percent owner	600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 4500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Sean P. Brusky	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O PARDES BIOSCIENCES, INC., 2173 SALK AVE., SUITE 250, PMB#052, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Thomas G Wiggans	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Foresite Capital Management V, Llc	10 percent owner	900 LARKSPUR LANDING CIRCLE, SUITE 150, LARKSPUR CA 94939
Pottage John C Jr	director	ACHILLION PHARMACEUTICALS, 300 GEORGE STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Alsup Laurie Smaldone	director	190 WOOSAMONSA RD, PENNINGTON NJ 08534
Heidi Henson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2173 SALK AVENUE, SUITE 250, PMB#052, CARLSBAD CA 92008
J Jay Lobell	director	365 W END AVE, APARTMENT 10A, NEW YORK NY 10024
Brian Philippe Tinmouth	officer: Chief Business & Strategy Ofcr	1 EVERTRUST PLAZA, 13TH FLOOR, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302-6548
Brian Kearney	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O PARDES BIOSCIENCES, INC., 2173 SALK AVE., SUITE 250, PMB#052, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Laura Hamill	director	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Lee D Arnold	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 99 HUDSON STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Uri A Lopatin	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 99 HUDSON STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013