ProKidney (ProKidney) Predictability Rank

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What is ProKidney Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ProKidney Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ProKidney (ProKidney) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » ProKidney Corp (NAS:PROK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PROK:Mexico

Address

2000 Frontis Plaza Boulevard, Suite 250, Winston-Salem, NC, USA, 27103

Website

https://www.prokidney.com

ProKidney Corp is a clinical-stage biotechnology company with a transformative proprietary cell therapy platform capable of treating multiple chronic kidney diseases using a patient's own cells isolated from the patient intended for treatment. Its lead product candidate, REACT (Renal Autologous Cell Therapy) is a disease-modifying cell therapy made from a patient's own renal cells. REACT has the potential to slow and stabilize the progression of chronic kidney disease.

Executives

Chamath Palihapitiya	10 percent owner	THE SOCIAL-CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP, L.L.C., 506 SANTA CRUZ AVENUE, SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sc Pipe Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	506 SANTA CRUZ AVE., SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sc Master Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	506 SANTA CRUZ AVENUE, SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Bruce Culleton	officer: EVP, Clinical Development	2000 FRONTIS PLAZA BLVD., SUITE 250, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103
Aaron Cowen	10 percent owner	540 MADISON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mary Weger	officer: Chief People Officer	ONE MAIN STREET, SUITE 800, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
William F Doyle	director
Tolerantia, Llc	10 percent owner	110 EAST 59TH STREET, SUITE 3300, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jimenez Santos Jose Ignacio	director	C/O PROKIDNEY CORP., 3929 WESTPOINT BLVD., SUITE G, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103
Deepak Jain	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PROKIDNEY CORP., 3929 WESTPOINT BLVD., SUITE G, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103
Darin J. Weber	officer: SVP of Regulatory Development	C/O PROKIDNEY CORP., 3929 WESTPOINT BLVD., SUITE G, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103
Libbie Parker Mckenzie	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O PROKIDNEY CORP., 3929 WESTPOINT BLVD., SUITE G, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103
James Coulston	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PROKIDNEY CORP., 3929 WESTPOINT BLVD., SUITE G, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103
Jennifer A. Fox	director	C/O NUVATION BIO INC., 1500 BROADWAY, SUITE 1401, NEW YORK NY 10036
Timothy Bertram	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TENGION, INC., 2900 POTSHOP LANE, SUITE 100, EAST NORRITON PA 19403