What is Peraso Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Peraso Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Peraso Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2033 Gateway Place, Suite 500, San Jose, CA, USA, 95110
Peraso Inc is a fabless semiconductor company focused on the development and sale of: i) millimeter wavelength wireless technology, or mmWave, semiconductor devices and antenna modules based on its proprietary semiconductor devices and ii) performance of non-recurring engineering, or NRE, services and licensing of intellectual property, or IP. The company's primary focus is the development of mmWave, which is generally described as the frequency band from 24 Gigahertz, or GHz, to 300 GHz. Geographically the company generates revenue from the United States, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Rest of the World.
Executives
| Alex Tomkins |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
2309 BERING DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Ian Mcwalter |
director |
2309 BERING DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Mark Lunsford |
officer: Chief Revenue Officer |
|
| Newell Robert Y Iv |
director |
2309 BERING DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Roadmap Peraso Lp Ii (u.s. & Offshore) |
10 percent owner |
130 BLOOR STREET WEST, SUITE 603, TORONTO A6 M5S 1N5 |
| Roadmap Peraso Lp Iii (u.s. & Offshore) |
10 percent owner |
130 BLOOR STREET WEST, SUITE 603, TORONTO A6 M5S 1N5 |
| Andreas Melder |
director |
2309 BERING DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Brad Lynch |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
2309 BERING DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Ronald Glibbery |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
2309 BERING DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Roadmap Innovation Fund I |
10 percent owner |
130 BLOOR STREET WEST, SUITE 603, TORONTO A6 M5S 1N5 |
| Roadmap Innovation Fund Ii |
10 percent owner |
130 BLOOR STREET WEST, SUITE 603, TORONTO A6 M5S 1N5 |
| Roadmap Capital General Partner Ltd |
10 percent owner |
130 BLOOR STREET WEST, SUITE 603, TORONTO A6 M5S 1N5 |
| Roadmap Peraso Lp |
10 percent owner |
130 BLOOR STREET WEST, SUITE 603, TORONTO A6 M5S 1N5 |
| Roadmap Peraso Lp Ii |
10 percent owner |
130 BLOOR STREET WEST, SUITE 603, TORONTO A6 M5S 1N5 |
| Roadmap Peraso Lp Iii |
10 percent owner |
130 BLOOR STREET WEST, SUITE 603, TORONTO A6 M5S 1N5 |
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