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Proxim Wireless (Proxim Wireless) Predictability Rank


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What is Proxim Wireless Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Proxim Wireless Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Proxim Wireless Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Proxim Wireless (Proxim Wireless) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Proxim Wireless Corp (OTCPK:PRXM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSXV:VTI OSAT GTXO BOM:531158 BOM:590041 NSE:TNTELE BOM:517411 DGDM MFCO XSAT:OPT XPAR:AVT TSXV:TTZ BOM:526775 AWSM ELST BOM:500346 WAR:CCS XSAT:EXALT ABIL TSXV:NVI
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1561 Buckeye Drive, Milpitas, CA, USA, 95035
Website
http://www.proxim.com
Proxim Wireless Corp provides high-speed wireless communications equipment and services. Its systems enable service providers, enterprises, and governmental organizations to deliver high-speed data connectivity enabling a broad range of applications.
Executives
Alan B Howe director 1155 KAS DRIVE SUITE 100, RICHARDSON TX 75081
John W Gerdelman director C/O SYCAMORE NETWORKS INC, 220 MILL RD, CHELMSFORD MA 01824
Miller Lloyd I Iii 10 percent owner
Robert E Fitzgerald other: Former Officer and Director 2204 VAQUERO ESTATES BLVD, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Brian J Sereda officer: CFO andTreasurer 3590 NORTH FIRST STREET, SUITE 210, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Mobius Vi Llc 10 percent owner A/O MOBIUS VENTURO CAPITAL 2 PALO ALTO, STE 500 3000 EL CAMINO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Mobius Technology Ventures Vi Lp 10 percent owner C/O MOBIUS VANTURE CAPITAL 2 PALO ALLO, STE. 500 3000 ELCAMINO REAL, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Mobius Technology Ventures Side Fund Vi L P 10 percent owner C/O MOBIUS VENTURE CAPITAL 2 PALO ALTO, STE 500 3000 EL CAMINO REAL, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Mobius Technology Ventures Advisors Fund Vi L P 10 percent owner C/O MOBIUS VENTURE CAPITAL 2 PALO ALTO, STE 500 3000 EL CAMINO REAL, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Softbank U S Ventures Vi L P 10 percent owner 200 W EVELYN AVE, STE 200, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Daniel Hesse director
Bradley A Feld 10 percent owner C/O FOUNDRY GROUP, 645 WALNUT ST., BOULDER CO 80302
Roizen Jo Ann Heidi 10 percent owner
Carol B Armitage director C/O WINDSTREAM CORPORATION 4001 RODNEY PARHAM RD; B1F3 LITTLE ROCK AR 72212