Prism Technologies Group (Prism Technologies Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Prism Technologies Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Prism Technologies Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Prism Technologies Group (Prism Technologies Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Prism Technologies Group Inc (OTCPK:PRZM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

101 Parkshore Drive, Suite 100, Folsom, CA, USA, 95630

Website

http://www.przmgroup.com

Prism Technologies Group Inc together with its subsidiaries operates as an intellectual property licensing and technology research and development company. It owns a patent portfolio consisting of nine patent families in the computer and network security, semiconductors and medical technology space. Prism continues to develop and patent new technologies and is committed to ongoing research and development efforts in several fields. Its objective is to develop and invent new technologies in the computer and network security, wearable computing, transaction processing and healthcare to speed time to market opportunities for the customers. Geographically all the operation of the firm is functioned through the region of US.

Executives

Dennis Chookaszian	director	20 S. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60626
Thomas W Orr	director	1440 CHAPIN AVE, STE 310, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Gregory J Duman	director, officer: Pres., Prism Technologies, LLC	C/O TRANSGENOMIC INC, 12325 EMMET STREET, OMAHA NE 68164
Osmium Capital Lp	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Osmium Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Osmium Spartan L P	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
John Hartnett Lewis	10 percent owner	388 MARKET STREET, SUITE 920, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Osmium Capital Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Osmium Diamond, Lp	10 percent owner	C/O OSMIUM PARTNERS, LLC, 300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Elisabeth H Demarse	director	CREDITCARDS.COM, 13809 RESEARCH BOULEVARD, SUITE 906, AUSTIN TX 78750
Miller Lloyd I Iii	10 percent owner
Ronald D Fisher	director	C/O SOFTBANK HOLDINGS INC, 10 LANGLEY ROAD SUITE 403, NEWTON CENTER MA 02159

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