PSAV (PSAV) Predictability Rank


What is PSAV Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PSAV Predictability Rank Related Terms

PSAV Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

PSAV Business Description

PSAV Inc was incorporated in Delaware on August 11, 2015. The Company along with its subsidiaries provides event technology services. The Company provides services including audiovisual services, equipment rental, staging and meeting services, communication systems, and related technical support to its customers in various venues, including hotels and convention centers. The Company's Video technology includes front and rear projection from large format HD high lumen projection to boardroom-style projectors, playback systems, image magnification, digital capture, cameras and display systems, including LED displays and video walls; Rigging Solutions include design and installation of permanently installed rig points in meeting venues, day-to-day deployment of rigging systems to safely transform meeting and event spaces for larger and more sophisticated set and lighting designs and certified trainers and inspectors; Wi-Fi Solutions include managing venues' entire network to provide customers secure and reliable wired and wireless solutions; Staging includes collections of custom screens and the ability to provide concert sound, broadcast quality projection, seasoned stage producers, and CAD drawing; Creative Services including Thematic creation, PowerPoint display, video creation, & stage sets; Mobile Device Applications tailored to the specific events that provide the schedule of events, maps, sponsors and detailed information on the host customer; Video Mapping / Simultaneous Translation; Virtual Meetings and Events; Event Consultation and Support, Power Distribution Solutions including streamlining of special event power distribution for event and production power across events, meeting rooms and trade shows; Audio including microphone and sound solutions with digital mixers, wireless microphones, networked audio and proprietary software to control live sound systems; and Lighting including speaker and stage lighting, intelligent lighting and decorative and theatrical lighting through gel lights and LED lights. The Company operates in two segments including Domestic and International. The Domestic segment provides services to customers throughout the United States and Puerto Rico; and is provider of event technology services at approximately over 1,000 hotel properties and other event venues. The International segment provides services to its customers in Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, Europe and the Middle East, in addition to providing non-venue based services in Asia; and provides event technology services at approximately over 300 international hotel properties and other event venues. The Company's customers include corporations, event organizers, trade associations and meeting planners. The Company faces competition from Freeman Company.