PSIX (Power Solutions International) Predictability Rank

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What is Power Solutions International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Power Solutions International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Power Solutions International Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Power Solutions International Inc (NAS:PSIX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

201 Mittel Drive, Wood Dale, IL, USA, 60191

Website

https://www.psiengines.com

Power Solutions International Inc is an America-based company that manufactures, distributes, and services power systems that run on nondiesel fuels, including natural gas, propane, and gasoline. The company's products are designed to meet emission standards imposed by environmental regulatory bodies like the Environmental Protection Agency. Its products are distributed to a wide range of industrial original equipment manufacturers that supply equipment to sectors including power generation, oil and gas, material handling, airport ground support, agricultural, turf, construction and irrigation. The company generates majority of its sales from United States.

Executives

Gary S Winemaster	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	231 EAST COLONIAL DRIVE, VERNON HILLS IL 60061
Neil Gagnon	10 percent owner	1370 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Fuzhang Yu	director	201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Jiwen Zhang	director	201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Gengsheng Zhang	director	201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Xun Li	officer: Chief Financial Officer	201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Junhua Gu	officer: See Remarks	201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Matthew Joseph Thomas	officer: See Remarks	201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Fabrizio Mozzi	director	201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Lei Lei	director	201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Xykis Constantine	officer: Chief Technology Officer	201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Sidong Shao	director	C/O 200 WEST MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Xinghao Li	director	C/O 200 WEST MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Hong He	director	201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Lance Michael Arnett	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191