PSYTF (Pason Systems) Predictability Rank


PSYTF Pason Systems Inc PSYTF
89 GF Score
Price $8.61
GF Value $10.19
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is Pason Systems Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pason Systems Predictability Rank Related Terms

PSYTF
89GF Score
Pason Systems Inc PSYTF
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Pason Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Pason Systems (PSYTF) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Pason Systems stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $8.61 is trading 15.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of $10.19. GuruFocus considers Pason Systems to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for PSYTF:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: $10.19 vs. price of $8.61 (15.5% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 89/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the PSYTF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Pason Systems Business Description

Industry EnergyOil & Gas
Other Exchanges 3PS:GermanyPSI:Canada
Address 6130 3rd Street SE, Calgary, AB, CAN, T2H 1K4
Pason Systems Inc is a provider of instrumentation and data management systems for drilling rigs. The electronic drilling recorder is the company's product, and provides a complete system of drilling data acquisition, data networking, drilling management tools, and reports at both the wellsite and customer office. The company reports on four strategic business units: The North American Drilling (Canada and the United States) and International Drilling (Latin America, including Mexico, Offshore, the Eastern Hemisphere, and the Middle East) and completions business units, all of which offer technology services to the oil and gas industry, and the Solar and Energy Storage business unit, which provides technology services to solar and energy storage developers.
89GF Score

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Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$8.61
Price
$10.19
GF Value