PureBase (PureBase) Predictability Rank

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What is PureBase Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PureBase Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PureBase Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PureBase (PureBase) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » PureBase Corp (OTCPK:PUBC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8631 State Highway, 124 lone, P.O. Box 757, Ione, CA, USA, 95640

Website

https://www.purebase.com

PureBase Corp is a diversified, industrial mineral and natural resource company. It provides new and improved, and environmentally sound solutions to a wide range of industries including cornerstone markets of agriculture and construction. The company focuses on the acquisition, development, mining developing, and marketing of natural mineral properties in California, Nevada, and the United States. It provides minerals such as silica sand, kaolin, bentonite, leonardite, potassium silicate sulfate, pozzolan, and limestone. Geographically all the business activity of the firm is operated through the region of the United States.

Executives

Bradford Charles Barto	director	2461 CRESTVIEW DRIVE, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92663
Jeffrey J Guzy	director	3130 19TH STREET, NORTH, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Kimberly Erin Kurtis	director	805 ADAIR AVE NE, ATLANTA GA 30306
Craig C Barto	10 percent owner	14761 BENTLEY CIRCLE, TUSTIN CA 92680
Michael Joseph Fay	officer: Chief Financial Officer	39270 PASEO PADRE PKWY, #459, FREMONT CA 94538
John A Bremer	director, 10 percent owner	10490 DAWSON CANYON ROAD, CORONA CA 92883
David Earl Jenkins	director	1110 W. MARLETTE STREET, IONE CA 95640
Thomas Michael Swett	director	3125 PETTY LANE, CARMICHAEL CA 95608
A Scott Dockter	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	3090 BOEING ROAD, CAMERON PARK CA 95682
Alfred Joseph Calvanico	officer: CFO	8625 HIGHWAY 124, PO BOX 757, IONE CA 95640
Amy Clemens	officer: CFO & Secretary	1670 SIERRA AVENUE, STE. 402, YUBA CITY CA 95993
Calvin Lim	director	6580 HAVEN SIDE DRIVE, SACRAMENTO CA 95831
John Gingerich	director	237 WEDGEWOOD DRIVE, WOODSTOCK A6 N4T 0J1
Bay Street Capital Corp	10 percent owner	SEA MEADOW HOUSE, BLACKBURNE HIGHWAY, PO BOX 116, ROAD TOWN, TORTOLA D8 00000