Paycor HCM (Paycor HCM) Predictability Rank

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What is Paycor HCM Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Paycor HCM Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Paycor HCM Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Paycor HCM (Paycor HCM) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Paycor HCM Inc (NAS:PYCR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4811 Montgomery Road, Cincinnati, OH, USA, 45212

Website

https://www.paycor.com

Paycor HCM provides payroll and human capital management solutions to small and midsize clients in the United States via a software-as-a-service model. Alongside core payroll functionality, the firm's platform offers a suite of HCM solutions including talent management and time and attendance software, third-party integration capabilities, and industry-specific configurations. The firm targets customers with 10-1,000 employees and had over 30,000 customers as of June 2023.

Executives

Alice L Geene	officer: See Remarks	500 W MADISON ST STE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60661
Jonathan Corr	director	ELLIE MAE, INC., 4420 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 500, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Pride Aggregator, Lp	10 percent owner	PRIDE GP, INC., C/O APAX PARTNERS, LP, 601 LEXINGTON AVE., 53RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Adam Brooks Ante	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4811 MONTGOMERY RD., CINCINNATI OH 45212
Scott David Miller	director	3576 SAINT CHARLES PLACE, CINCINNATI OH 45208
Whitney Marilinn Bouck	director	4811 MONTGOMERY RD., CINCINNATI OH 45212
Pride Gp, Inc.	10 percent owner	251 LITTLE FALLS DRIVE, WILMINGTON DE 19808
Jeremy Rishel	director	234 1ST STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Ryan Norman Bergstrom	officer: Chief Product Officer	4811 MONTGOMERY RD., CINCINNATI OH 45212
Raul Jr. Villar	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	4811 MONTGOMERY RD., CINCINNATI OH 45212
Sarah Kathryn Haines	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	4811 MONTGOMERY RD., CINCINNATI OH 45212
Charles Steven Mueller	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	4811 MONTGOMERY RD., CINCINNATI OH 45212
Steven A Collins	director	20 N. MERIDIAN STREET, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Kathleen Ann Burke	director	4811 MONTGOMERY ROAD, CINCINNATI OH 45212
Umang Kajaria	director	C/O DUCK CREEK TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 22 BOSTON WHARF ROAD, FLOOR 10, BOSTON MA 02210