GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » QuidelOrtho Corp (NAS:QDEL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

QDEL (QuidelOrtho) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1992. Start your Free Trial

What is QuidelOrtho Predictability Rank?

4 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


QuidelOrtho Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

QuidelOrtho Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of QuidelOrtho's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


QuidelOrtho Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
9975 Summers Ridge Road, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121
QuidelOrtho Corp is engaged in the development, manufacturing, and marketing of rapid diagnostic testing solutions. The company is engaged in immunoassay and molecular testing, clinical chemistry and transfusion medicine which helps clinicians and patients to make decisions across the globe. Geographically the company has its presence in North America, EMEA, China and Other countries. It generates majority if the revenue from North America.
Executives
Carlyle Group Inc. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Joseph M Busky officer: Chief Financial Officer 1717 DEERFIELD ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Louise Brandy officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer 9975 SUMMERS RIDGE ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Patrick Klein officer: Chief Administrative Officer 9975 SUMMERS RIDGE ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Tc Group Vi Cayman, L.l.c. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Christopher M Smith director 125 CONSTITUTION DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Douglas C Bryant director, officer: Chairman & CEO C/O QUIDEL CORPORATION, 12544 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Michelle A. Hodges officer: SVP, General Counsel 9975 SUMMERS RIDGE ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Wilkins Joseph D Jr. director 82414 PUCCINI DRIVE, INDIO CA 92203
Robert Joseph Bujarski officer: See Remarks C/O QUIDEL CORPORATION, 12544 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Stephen H. Wise director C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Tamara A. Ranalli officer: SVP, Molecular Bus. Unit 9975 SUMMERS RIDGE ROAD SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Robert R. Schmidt director C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Kenneth F Buechler director
Werner Kroll officer: SVP, Research and Development 12544 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130