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Qlik Technologies (Qlik Technologies) Predictability Rank


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What is Qlik Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Qlik Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Qlik Technologies Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Qlik Technologies's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Qlik Technologies (Qlik Technologies) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Qlik Technologies Inc (NAS:QLIK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
FIVN TENB ALTR LSE:SOPH MIME BL APPN EVOP BOX YEXT EVTC TWOU GSKY TSE:4686 VRNS LPSN DAVA QTWO LSE:NETW SAIL
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.qlik.com
Qlik Technologies Inc was founded in Sweden in 1993. It solves problems for organizations of all sizes, including the enterprises. The Company is a user-driven Business Intelligence solution that enables its customers to make robust and faster business decisions. The Qlikview Business Discovery platform, or QlikView, helps people create and share insights and analysis in groups and across organizations. Business users can explore data, ask and answer their own stream of questions and follow their own path to insight on their own and in teams and groups. The QlikView is powered by its in-memory engine which maintains associations in data and calculates aggregations as needed. The Company operates in one business segment, namely, the development, commercialization and implementation of software products and related services. It offers solution from middle market customers to large enterprises such as Autodesk, The Dannon Company, Inc., Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG, Hertz, ING, Kraft Foods, L'Oreal, Lifetime Brands, Lockton Insurance, National Health Service (NHS), Panasonic, Qualcomm, Sony Europe, Symantec, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and Volvo Car UK Limited. Its products include: QlikView, QlikView Expressor and QlikView.Next. Its customers can renew, and generally have renewed, their maintenance agreements for a fee that is based upon a percentage of the initial license fee paid. Company market and sell its products and services through its direct sales force and an indirect sales channel comprised of partner network. The Company competes with large software corporations, including suppliers of enterprise resource planning software, that provide one or more capabilities competitive with its products, such as IBM, Microsoft, Oracle and SAP AG.
Executives
Timothy J Maccarrick officer: CFO C/O QLIK TECHNOLOGIES INC.,, 150 N. RADNOR CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Deborah C Hopkins director 1007 MARKET ST, WILMINGTON DE 19898
Bruce Golden director 428 UNIVERSITY AVE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Diane Adams officer: Chief People Officer 222 MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, SUITE 2024, CHICAGO IL 60654
Steffan Tomlinson director PALO ALTO NETWORKS, INC., 3300 OLCOTT STREET, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Gavin John J Jr director
John C Burris director 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Erel N Margalit director 41 MADISON AVENUE 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Jerusalem Partners Iv Lp 10 percent owner C/O JVP CONSULTING INC, 41 MADISON AVE 25TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10010
Jerusalem Venture Partners Iv A Lp 10 percent owner C/O JVP CONSULTING INC, 41 MADISON AVE 25TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10010
Jerusalem Venture Partners Iv Israel Lp 10 percent owner JERUSALEM TECHNOLOGY PARK, BUILDING 1, MALHA, JERUSALEM L3 91487
Jerusalem Partners Iv - Venture Capital Lp 10 percent owner JERUSALEM TECHNOLOGY PARK, BUILDING 1, MALHA, JERUSALEM L3 91487
Jerusalem Venture Partners Entrepreneurs Fund Iv Lp 10 percent owner C/O JVP CONSULTING INC, 41 MADISON AVE 25TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10010
Jvp Corp Iv 10 percent owner C/O ALEXANDRIA BANCORP LTD, P.O. BOX 2428 GT, GRAND CAYMAN E9 00000
Jerusalem Venture Partners Iv Lp 10 percent owner C/O JVP CONSULTING INC, 41 MADISON AVE 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010

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