RBOT (Vicarious Surgical) Predictability Rank

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What is Vicarious Surgical Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vicarious Surgical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vicarious Surgical Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Vicarious Surgical Inc (NYSE:RBOT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

78 Fourth Avenue, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

https://www.vicarioussurgical.com

Vicarious Surgical Inc designs a surgical robot that enables surgeons to perform minimally invasive surgery with 3D visualization and accurate control. Its Vicarious Surgical Robotic System is designed with a focus on abdominal access and visualization through a single port.

Executives

Adam David Sachs	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	C/O VICARIOUS SURGICAL INC., 78 4TH AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Sammy Khalifa	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O VICARIOUS SURGICAL INC., 78 4TH AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
William John Kelly	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O VICARIOUS SURGICAL INC., 78 4TH AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
John Mazzola	officer: Chief Operating Officer	TRANSMEDICS INC, 200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810
June Morris	officer: CLO, General Counsel and Sec	C/O VICARIOUS SURGICAL INC., 78 4TH AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Khosla Ventures Opportunity Associates Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	2128 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Khosla Ventures V, L.p.	10 percent owner	2128 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Khosla Ventures Opportunity Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	2128 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
David D Ho	director	UNIT 1008, 10/F, CHAMPION TOWER, 3 GARDEN ROAD, CENTRAL K3 00000
Philip Liang	director	C/O VICARIOUS SURGICAL INC., 78 4TH AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Brendel Victoria Carr	director	C/O VICARIOUS SURGICAL, INC., 78 FOURTH AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Beverly A Huss	director	C/O ACCURAY INCORPORATED, 1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
E15 Fund Ii, Lp	other: Sole Shareholder	C/O VICARIOUS SURGICAL INC., 78 4TH AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Shrikant Patnaik	other: Principal	C/O VICARIOUS SURGICAL INC., 78 4TH AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Ric Fulop	director	C/O DESKTOP METAL, INC., 63 THIRD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803