Arcadia Biosciences (Arcadia Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Arcadia Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arcadia Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Arcadia Biosciences (Arcadia Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Arcadia Biosciences Inc (NAS:RKDA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

17D:Germany 17D:Germany

Address

5950 Sherry Lane, Suite 215, Dallas, TX, USA, 75225

Website

https://www.arcadiabio.com

Arcadia Biosciences Inc is a producer and marketer of innovative, plant-based food and beverage products. It is engaged in science-based approaches to developing high-value crop improvements primarily in wheat, soy, and hemp, designed to enhance farm economics by improving the performance of crops in the field, as well as their value as food ingredients, health, and wellness products, and their viability for industrial applications. The company's consumer brands in the food, beverage, and body care categories include GoodWheat high-fiber pasta, Zola coconut water, ProVault topical pain relief, and SoulSpring bath and body care.

Executives

Thomas J. Schaefer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	202 COUSTEAU PLACE STE 105, DAVIS CA 95618
Stanley Jr Jacot	officer: Chief Executive Officer	202 COUSTEAU PLACE STE 105, DAVIS CA 95618
Pamela Haley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	202 COUSTEAU PLACE, DAVIS CA 95618
Laura Pitlik	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	202 COUSTEAU PLACE, SUITE 105, DAVIS CA 95618
Chris Cuvelier	officer: Chief Growth Officer	202 COUSTEAU PLACE, SUITE 105, DAVIS CA 95618
Deborah D Carosella	director	3603 HAVEN AVE, SUITE E, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Matthew T Plavan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O THERMOGENESIS CORP., 2711 CITRUS ROAD, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742
Randall Shultz	officer: Chief Technology Officer	4222 E. THOMAS ROAD, SUITE 320, PHOEBIIX AZ 85018
Sarah Reiter	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	202 COUSTEAU PLACE, DAVIS CA 95618
Lilian Shackelford Murray	director	228 BEACH ROAD, BELVEDERE CA 94920
Kevin Comcowich	director	C/O ARCADIA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 202 COUSTEAU PLACE, SUITE 105, DAVIS CA 95618
Albert D. Bolles	director	CONAGRA FOODS, INC., ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, MS 1-330, OMAHA NE 68102
Eric J. Rey	director, officer: President and CEO	ARCADIA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 202 COUSTEAU PLACE, SUITE 105, DAVIS CA 95618
Zhongjin Lu	officer: VP Product Development	ARCADIA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 202 COUSTEAU PLACE, SUITE 105, DAVIS CA 95618
Amy Yoder	director	C/O SPECTRUM BRANDS, INC., 6 CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 3300, ATLANTA GA 30328