Rallybio (Rallybio) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Rallybio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rallybio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Rallybio Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Rallybio's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Rallybio (Rallybio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Rallybio Corp (NAS:RLYB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

234 Church Street, Suite 1020, New Haven, CT, USA, 06510

Website

https://www.rallybio.com

Rallybio Corp is a biopharmaceutical company committed to identifying and accelerating the development of life-transforming therapies for patients with severe and rare disorders. Its lead program is for the prevention of fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia, a potentially life-threatening rare disease that can cause uncontrolled bleeding in fetuses and newborns.

Executives

5am Partners V, Llc	10 percent owner	501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Kush Parmar	director, 10 percent owner	C/O 5AM VENTURES, 501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Jonathan I Lieber	officer: See Remarks	C/O HISTOGENICS CORPORATION, 830 WINTER STREET #3, WALTHAM MA 02451
Viking Global Investors Lp	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Ole Andreas Halvorsen	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
David C. Ott	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Viking Global Opportunities Portfolio Gp Llc	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Viking Global Opportunities Gp Llc	10 percent owner	55 RAILROAD AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Viking Global Opportunities Illiquid Investments Sub-master Lp	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Rose Sharon Shabet	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Viking Global Opportunities Parent Gp Llc	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Wendy Chung	director	PRIME MEDICINE, INC., 21 ERIE ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
5am Opportunities I, L.p.	10 percent owner	501 SECOND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Hui Liu	director	C/O MERUS N.V., YALELAAN 62, UTRECHT P7 3584 CM
Christine A Nash	director	C/O RALLYBIO CORPORATION, 234 CHURCH STREET, SUITE 1020, NEW HAVEN CT 06510