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RiverNorth Opportunistic Municipalome Fund, (RiverNorth Opportunistic Municipalome Fund,) Predictability Rank


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What is RiverNorth Opportunistic Municipalome Fund, Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RiverNorth Opportunistic Municipalome Fund, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

RiverNorth Opportunistic Municipalome Fund, Predictability Rank Related Terms

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RiverNorth Opportunistic Municipalome Fund, (RiverNorth Opportunistic Municipalome Fund,) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » RiverNorth Opportunistic Municipal Income Fund, Inc. (NYSE:RMI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PCM NMT WNLV SRV TPZ WHG IHD NMI NXG BCV BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
360 South Rosemary Avenue, Suite 1420, West Palm Beach, FL, USA, 33401
Website
https://www.rivernorth.com
RiverNorth Opportunistic Municipal Income Fund, Inc. is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to seek current income exempt from regular U.S. federal income taxes. The Fund's secondary investment objective is total return.
Executives
Stephen Andrew O'neill other: Portfolio Manager 360 S. ROSEMARY AVE., SUITE 1420, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Patrick W. Galley director, officer: President 360 S. ROSEMARY AVE, SUITE 1420, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Lisa Bruckert Mougin director C/O RIVERNORTH CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 360 S. ROSEMARY AVE., SUITE 1420, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Scott Sprauer other: Portfolio Manager 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
John J Lawlor other: Portfolio Manager 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Robert A Dimella other: Portfolio Manager 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Brian H Schmucker other: Officer of Investment Adviser 325 NORTH LASALLE STREET, SUITE 645, CHICAGO IL 60654
Jerry Raio director 360 S. ROSEMARY AVE, SUITE 1420, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Rivernorth Capital Management, Llc other: Investment Adviser 360 S. ROSEMARY AVE, SUITE 1420, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Michael Petty other: Portfolio Manager 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
David Dowden other: Portfolio Manager 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NJ 10105
Mackay Shields Llc other: Sub-Adviser 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Jonathan M. Mohrhardt other: Treasurer 325 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 645, CHICAGO IL 60654
Marcus L Collins other: Secretary and CCO 325 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 645, CHICAGO IL 60654
Robert Patrick Burke other: Portfolio Manager C/O MACKAY SHIELDS LLC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105

RiverNorth Opportunistic Municipalome Fund, (RiverNorth Opportunistic Municipalome Fund,) Headlines

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