RM2 International (RM2 International) Predictability Rank

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What is RM2 International Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RM2 International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

RM2 International Predictability Rank Related Terms

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RM2 International (RM2 International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » RM2 International Inc (OTCPK:RMTO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

810 Flightline Boulevard, Deland, FL, USA, 32724

Website

https://www.rm2.com

RM2 International Inc leases robust composite pallets to replace wooden pallets, including smart Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, to improve logistics. In every BLOCKPal pallet, embedded IoT sensors capture location, temperature, shock & tilt, and movement. Sensor data is transmitted via a high-speed LTE-M network to RM2's secure cloud database. RM2 issues, retrieves, and sanitizes more than 1.5 million of its hygienic IoT pallets annually through a nationwide network of over 30 service facilities in a cost-effective, scalable, and environmentally sustainable pallet pooling system.

Executives

Brian Knaley	other: Former Officer	C/O ARC GROUP WORLDWIDE, INC., 810 FLIGHTLINE BLVD., DELAND FL 32724
Everest Hill Group Inc.	10 percent owner	TROPIC ISLE BUILDING, P O BOX 3331, ROAD TOWN TORTOLA D8 VG 1110
Alan G Quasha	director	127 EAST 73RD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021
Theodore Deinard	other: Former Interim CEO, CFO, & Dir	C/O ARC WIRELESS SOLUTIONS, INC., 6330 NORTH WASHINGTON ST., SUITE 13, DENVER CO 80216
Javier Baz	director	1100 HUMBOLDT STREET, DENVER CO 80218
Robert E Wade	director	C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC, ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Randall P Marx	director, officer: CEO, President & Secretary
Monty R Lamirato	officer: CFO