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RNAZ (TransCode Therapeutics) Predictability Rank


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What is TransCode Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


TransCode Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

TransCode Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TransCode Therapeutics Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6 Liberty Square, Suite 2382, Boston, MA, USA, 02109
TransCode Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage oncology company focused on treating metastatic disease. It is committed to defeating cancer through the intelligent design and effective delivery of RNA therapeutics based on its proprietary TTX nanoparticle platform. The company's lead therapeutic candidate, TTX-MC138, is focused on treating metastatic tumors which overexpress microRNA-10b, a unique, well-documented biomarker of metastasis. In addition, TransCode is developing a portfolio of first-in-class RNA therapeutic candidates designed to overcome the challenges of RNA delivery and thus unlock therapeutic access to a variety of novel genetic targets that could be relevant to treating a variety of cancers.
Executives
Robert Michael Dudley director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O TRANSCODE THERAPEUTICS, 6 LIBERTY SQUARE #2382, BOSTON MA 02109
Thomas A Fitzgerald director, officer: VP, Chief Financial Officer C/O TRANSCODE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6 LIBERTY SQUARE, #2382, BOSTON MA 02109
Magda Marquet director ALTHEADX INC., 3550 DUNHILL STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Philippe Calais director C/O MARINA BIOTECH, INC., 17870 CASTLETON STREET, SUITE 250, CITY OF INDUSTRY CA 91748
Anna Moore 10 percent owner C/O TRANSCODE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6 LIBERTY SQUARE #2382, BOSTON MA 02109
Zdravka Medarova 10 percent owner C/O TRANSCODE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6 LIBERTY SQUARE, #2382, BOSTON MA 02109
Erik Manting director C/O TRANSCODE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6 LIBERTY SQUARE, #2382, BOSTON MA 02109