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Roundys (Roundys) Predictability Rank


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What is Roundys Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Roundys Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Roundys Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Roundys's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Roundys (Roundys) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Roundys, Inc. is a Midwest supermarket founded in 1872 as a privately owned food wholesaling company. The Company is a food retailer in the state of Wisconsin. It owns and operates 163 retail grocery stores, of which 121 are located in Wisconsin, 29 are located in Minnesota and 13 are located in Illinois. It also distributes a full line of food and non-food products from three wholesale distribution centers and provides services to one independent licensee retail grocery store in Wisconsin. The Company completed the initial public offering on February 13, 2012. Its stores feature expansive meat, produce, deli and other perishable products and specialty and prepared foods departments. It also offers a line of health and beauty care products and a selection of seasonal merchandise to maximize the conveniences offered to its customers. The Company operates retail grocery stores under its Pick 'n Save, Rainbow, Copps, Metro Market and Mariano's retail banners. Many of its product categories include natural and organic options, catering to its customers' focus on healthier eating choices. It provides its customers with a compelling one-stop shopping experience featuring a level of customer service in its attractive and convenient stores. The Company's products can be classified as non-perishable, perishable and non-food. Non-perishable food categories consist of grocery, frozen, and dairy products. Perishable categories include produce, meat, seafood, deli, bakery and floral. Non-food includes general merchandise, health and beauty care, pharmacy, and alcohol. It distributes personalized offers to customers via email/ digital communication, in-store coupons and direct mail communications based on specific behaviors, measured through its loyalty card activity. The Company competes with conventional, national and regional supercenters such as; New Albertson's, Inc., Costco, Target and Wal-Mart, Woodman's and Meijer's, Festival Foods and Piggly Wiggly, Aldi, Trader Joe's and Whole Foods, and local supermarkets, natural foods stores, smaller specialty stores and farmers' markets. The Company is subject to federal, state and local laws and regulations relating to zoning, land use, environmental protection, work place safety, public health, community right-to-know, alcoholic beverage sales, tobacco sales and pharmaceutical sales.
Executives
Patrick J. Condon director 505 SOUTH GILLETTE AVE., GILLETTE WY 82716
Gregory P Josefowicz director 850 76TH STREET SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518
Robert A Mariano director, officer: President, CEO and Chairman 875 E WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 100, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Darren W Karst officer: EVP, CFO & Assistant Secretary P.O. BOX 473 (MS-2030), MILWAUKEE WI 53201-0473

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