ROYL (Royale Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Royale Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Royale Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Royale Energy Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Royale Energy Inc (OTCPK:ROYL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1530 Hilton Head Road, Suite 205, El Cajon, CA, USA, 92019

Website

https://www.royl.com

Royale Energy Inc is an independent oil and natural gas producer. The company's business includes the production and sale of oil and natural gas, acquisition of oil and gas lease interests and proved reserves, drilling of both exploratory and development wells, and sales of fractional working interests in wells to be drilled by Royale. Its wells and leases are located in the Sacramento Basin and San Joaquin Basin in California as well as in Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana.

Executives

Jonathan Gregory	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Stephen M Hosmer	officer: CFO and Secretary	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Barry D Lasker	director	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Karen Kerns	director, 10 percent owner	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Thomas M Gladney	director	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Harry Hosmer	director	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Michael Mccaskey	director	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Robert J Vogel	director	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Mel G Riggs	director	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Johnny Jordan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Rod Eson	director	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Jeffrey R Kerns	director, 10 percent owner	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Ronald Verdier	director	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020
Ronald L Buck	director	1870 CORDELL COURT, SUITE 210, EL CAJON CA 92020