RXO (RXO) Predictability Rank

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What is RXO Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RXO Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

RXO Predictability Rank Related Terms

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RXO Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » RXO Inc (NYSE:RXO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

11215 North Community House Road, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28277

Website

https://www.rxo.com

RXO Inc is a brokered transportation platform defined by cutting-edge technology and a nimble, asset-light business model, with the component being core truck brokerage business. Its operations also include three asset-light, brokered transportation services, all of which complement its truck brokerage business: managed transportation, last mile and freight forwarding. The company operates into one reportable segment. The operates within the transportation industry and in the same geography North America.

Executives

Michelle Nettles	director	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Mfn Partners, Lp	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Christine S Breves	director	600 GRANT STREET, SUITE 6100, PITTSBURGH PA 16059
Andrew M. Wilkerson	officer: Chief Executive Officer	11215 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Stephen M. Renna	director	11215 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Thomas A Szlosek	director	HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC., 115 TABOR ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950
Farhad Nanji	10 percent owner	C/O HIGHFIELDS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Jason S. Kerr	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	11215 N. COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Adrian Kingshott	director	C/O RXO, INC., 11215 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Annamaria Desalva	director	C/O RXO, INC., 11215 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Mfn Partners Management, Lp	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Michael Demichele	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Mfn Partners Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Mfn Partners Management, Llc	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Mary E. Kissel	director	C/O RXO, INC., 11215 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277