RXST (RxSight) Predictability Rank

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What is RxSight Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RxSight Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

RxSight Predictability Rank Related Terms

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RxSight Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » RxSight Inc (NAS:RXST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Columbia, Aliso Viejo, CA, USA, 92656

Website

https://www.rxsight.com

RxSight Inc is a commercial-stage medical technology company dedicated towards improving the vision of patients following cataract surgery. It offers intraocular lens technology that enables doctors to customize and optimize visual acuity for patients after cataract surgery. The company operates and manages its business in one reportable segment, the research and development, manufacture and sale of light adjustable lenses and related capital equipment.

Executives

Tamara Fountain	director	C/O RXSIGHT, INC., 100 COLUMBIA, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Shweta Maniar	director	C/O SEASPINE HOLDINGS CORP, 5770 ARMADA DRIVE, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Jesse Anderson Corley	director	C/O RXSIGHT, INC., 100 COLUMBIA, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Ilya Goldshleger	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O RXSIGHT, INC., 100 COLUMBIA, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Julie Andrews	director	5677 AIRLINE ROAD, ARLINGTON TN 38002
Bakker Juliet Tammenoms	director	LONGITUDE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO., LLC, 800 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Kurtz Ronald M Md	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O RXSIGHT, INC., 100 COLUMBIA, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Shelley B Thunen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O RXSIGHT, INC., 100 COLUMBIA, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Link William J Phd	director, 10 percent owner	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Eric Weinberg	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O RXSIGHT, INC., 100 COLUMBIA, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Robert Keith Warner	director	C/O RXSIGHT, INC., 100 COLUMBIA, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Ra Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Robert J Palmisano	director	110 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02173
Rajeev M. Shah	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116