Scholastic (Scholastic) Predictability Rank

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What is Scholastic Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Scholastic Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Scholastic Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Scholastic (Scholastic) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Scholastic Corp (NAS:SCHL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SL1:Germany

Address

557 Broadway, New York, NY, USA, 10012

Website

https://www.scholastic.com

Scholastic Corp is an American publishing and education media company that focuses on books and educational material for schools, teachers, parents, and children. The company is one of the world's largest publishers of children's books and also owns exclusive rights to various books, including Harry Potter and The Hunger Games. Some of the company's original titles include Clifford the Big Red Dog, Goosebumps, and The Magic School Bus. It has three reportable segments Children's Book Publishing and Distribution, Education Solutions and International. It majority of its revenue is from the Children's Book Publishing and Distribution segment.

Executives

John L Davies	director	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY SCHOLASTIC CORP, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Warwick Peter	director	C/O SCHOLASTIC INC., 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Sasha Quinton	officer: President, Book Fairs	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY, SCHOLASTIC, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Linda Li	director	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY, SCHOLASTIC, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Paul Hukkanen	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY, SCHOLASTIC INC., 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Verdell Walker	director	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY, SCHOLASTIC, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Robert Louis Dumont	director	C/O SCHOLASTIC INC., 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Rose Else-mitchell	officer: President, Education Solutions	C/O HMH; 125 HIGH STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Richard Robinson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Chairman and President	C/O SCHOLASTIC CORP, 555 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012-3999
Andres A Alonso	director	C/O LEGAL DEPT.,SCHOLASTIC CORPORATION, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Judith Newman	officer: EVP, Pres., BK Clubs & E-Comm	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY, SCHOLASTIC CORPORATION, NEW YORK NY 10012
Andrews S Hedden	director, officer: EVP, General Counsel	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY SCHOLASTIC CORP, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Alan J Boyko	officer: President, Schl Book Fairs	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY,SCHOLASTIC CORP, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Mary Beech	director	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY, SCHOLASTIC, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Satbir Bedi	officer: EVP, Chief Technology Officer	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY, SCHOLASTIC, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012