GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities (NYSE:SDHY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities (PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities (PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities (NYSE:SDHY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
EAD MUA FSD HIO EFT GBAB BGR ETB EVN EFR BLK BX OSTO:INVE A KKR TSX:BN APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
655 Broad Street, 6th Floor, Newark, NJ, USA, 07102
Website
https://www.pgim.com
PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities is a closed-end management investment company. The fund's investment objective is to provide total return, through a combination of current income and capital appreciation. Its seeks to achieve its objective by investing in a diversified portfolio of high yield fixed income instruments.
Executives
Robert Cignarella other: Portfolio Manager 100 MULBERRY STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Barry H Evans director C/O PGIM INVESTMENTS, 655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Andrew Donohue officer: Chief Compliance Officer 655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Brian J Lalli other: Portfolio Manager 655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Robert Mccormack officer: Assistant Treasurer 655 BROAD ST., NEWARK NJ 07102
Michael Lillard other: Head of PGIM Fixed Income/CIO 655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Isabelle Sajous officer: Chief Compliance Officer 655 BROAD ST., NEWARK NJ 07102
Michael Joseph Gormally other: Portfolio Manager 655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Daniel T Thorogood other: Portfolio Manager PGIM, INC., 655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Gregory J Peters other: Co-Chief Investment Officer 655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Craig C Dewling other: Co-Chief Investment Officer 655 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Debra Rubano officer: Assistant Secretary 655 BROAD STREET, PRUDENTIAL TOWER SOUTH, NEWARK NJ 07102
Brian Clapp other: Portfolio Manager 100 MULBERRY STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Richard Greenwood other: Investment Professional 2 GATEWAY CENTER, NEWARK NJ 07102
Robert Spano other: Portfolio Manager 2 GATEWAY CENTER, NEWARK NJ 07102