SFM (Sprouts Farmers Market) Predictability Rank

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What is Sprouts Farmers Market Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sprouts Farmers Market Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sprouts Farmers Market Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (NAS:SFM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1FA:Germany

Address

5455 East High Street, Suite 111, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85054

Website

https://www.sprouts.com

Sprouts Farmers Market Inc offers a specialty grocery experience featuring an open layout with fresh produce at the heart of the store. Sprouts inspire wellness naturally with a carefully curated assortment products paired with purpose-driven people. The company continues to bring products made with lifestyle-friendly ingredients such as organic, plant-based, and gluten-free. It approximately has 407 stores in nearly 23 states. The Company has one operating segment that is healthy grocery stores.

Executives

Kim Coffin	officer: SVP, Chief Forager	5455 EAST HIGH STREET, SUITE 111, PHOENIX AZ 85054
Douglas Gregory Rauch	director	54 WILDE ROAD, WABAN MA 02468
Timmi Zalatoris	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	5455 EAST HIGH STREET, SUITE 111, PHOENIX AZ 85054
Jack Sinclair	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	800 WEST 1ST STREET, APT. 2308, LOS ANGELES CA 90012
Brandon F. Lombardi	officer: Chief Legal Officer	11811 N. TATUM BOULEVARD SUITE 2400, PHOENIX AZ 85028
Joseph L Hurley	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	5455 EAST HIGH STREET, SUITE 111, PHOENIX AZ 85054
Alisa Gmelich	officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer	5455 EAST HIGH STREET, SUITE 111, PHOENIX AZ 85054
Stacy W. Hilgendorf	officer: VP, Controller	14624 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254
John Scott Neal	officer: Chief Fresh Merchandising Off.	5455 EAST HIGH STREET, SUITE 111, PHOENIX AZ 85054
Nicholas Konat	officer: President & COO	10850 VIA FRONTERA, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
David Mcglinchey	officer: Chief Merchandising Officer	5455 E. HIGH STREET, SUITE 111, PHOENIX AZ 85054
Joe Fortunato	director	300 SIXTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Joseph D O'leary	director	19601 N 27TH AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Terri F Graham	director	C/O JACK IN THE BOX INC, 9330 BALVOA AVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Kristen E Blum	director	5455 EAST HIGH STREET, SUITE 111, PHOENIX AZ 85054