SPAR Group (SPAR Group) Predictability Rank

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What is SPAR Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SPAR Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SPAR Group (SPAR Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » SPAR Group Inc (NAS:SGRP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PMH:Germany

Address

1910 Opdyke Court, Auburn Hills, MI, USA, 48326

Website

https://www.sparinc.com

SPAR Group Inc is a supplier of merchandising and other marketing services. It also provides in-store event staffing, product sampling, audit services, furniture and other product assembly services, technology services and marketing research services. The company divides its operations into two reportable segments: Domestic division is comprised of all operations within the United States; and The International division is a consolidation of all other operations and joint ventures. Its customers are from retail and manufacturing segments. Its geographic presence is in Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, China, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Turkey, and United States from where it generates maximum revenue.

Executives

Pato Antonio Calisto	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SPAR GROUP, INC., 1910 OPDYKE COURT, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Robert G/ Brown	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, Chief Executive Offi
Spar Business Services Inc	other: Affiliated with Robert G Brown	7711 N MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 1000, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33410
Williams H Bartels	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Vice Chairman
Sean Whelan	director	C/O ZOMEDICA CORP., 100 PHOENIX DRIVE, SUITE 125, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Michael Wager	director	100 BURTT ROAD, SUITE 115, BOSTON MA 01810
Kori Belzer	officer: Chief Operations Officer	SPAR GROUP INC, 580 WHITE PLAINS RD., TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Fay Devriese	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SPAR GROUP, INC., 1910 OPDYKE COURT, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Ronald Wayne Lutz	officer: Chief Global CommercialOfficer	C/O SPAR GROUP, INC., 1910 OPDYKE COURT, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
William Linnane	officer: Chief Strategy & GrowthOfficer	C/O SPAR GROUP, INC., 1910 OPDYKE COURT, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Arthur H Baer	director	61 BUSHNELL ROAD, HILLSDALE NY 12529
Mike R. Matacunas	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	500 VOLVO PARKWAY, CHESAPEAKE VA 23320
James Richard Brown	director	C/O SPAR GROUP, INC., 1910 OPDYKE COURT, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Igor Novgorodtsev	director	C/O SPAR GROUP, INC. 333 WESTCHESTER AVE, SOUTH BUILDING, SUITE 204, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
James R Segreto	officer: Controller	C/O SPAR GROUP INC, 580 WHITE PLAINS RD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591