Fuxing China Group (SGX:AWK) Predictability Rank


SGX:AWK Fuxing China Group Ltd SGX:AWK
37 GF Score
Price S$0.99
GF Value S$0.26
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Fuxing China Group Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fuxing China Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

SGX:AWK
37GF Score
Fuxing China Group Ltd SGX:AWK
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Fuxing China Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Fuxing China Group (SGX:AWK) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fuxing China Group stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of S$0.99 is trading 278.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of S$0.26. GuruFocus considers Fuxing China Group to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for SGX:AWK:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: S$0.26 vs. price of S$0.99 (278.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 37/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the SGX:AWK stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Fuxing China Group Business Description

Other Exchanges 3FU1:Germany
Address Hangbian Industry Area, Longhu Town, Fujian Province, Jinjiang, CHN, 362241
Fuxing China Group Ltd is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiary group is engaged in the production and sale of zipper sliders and zipper chains, provision of colour dyeing of fabric tapes for zippers, electroplating services for zipper sliders, and manufacturing and sales of dyed yarn. The Group is also engaged in the trading of raw materials in Hong Kong. It has four segments: Sales of zipper chains and zipper sliders, Trading of textile raw and auxiliary materials, Zipper processing services, and Corporate. The group generates the majority of its revenue from Sales of zipper chains and zipper sliders, which include zipper chains consisting of two strips of fabric tapes, with parallel rows of specially shaped nylon, metal, or plastic teeth, and Others.
37GF Score

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Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

S$0.99
Price
S$0.26
GF Value