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Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co (SHSE:600276) Predictability Rank


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What is Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd (SHSE:600276) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:600436 SZSE:002422 SZSE:002019 SZSE:300357 SHSE:600771 SHSE:600666 SHSE:600713 SZSE:000411 SHSE:688710 SZSE:300006 LLY OCSE:NOVO B JNJ ABBV MRK XSWX:ROG XSWX:NOVN LSE:AZN AMGN PFE
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 38, Huanghe Road, Economic, Economic and Technological Development Zone, Jiangsu Province, Lianyugang, CHN, 222047
Website
http://www.hrs.com.cn
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd is engaged in the field of cancer treatment drugs, surgical medicines, endocrine therapy drugs, cardiovascular drugs and anti-infection medications. It specializes in the research and development of new medicines in areas of antineoplastics, endocrine system, cardiovascular, and the immune system.
Executives
Zhang Lian Shan Directors, senior managers
Sun Xu Gen senior management
Yuan Kai Hong senior management
Zou Jian Jun senior management
senior management
Zhang Yue Hong senior management
Liu Xiao Han senior management
Zhou Yun Shu Directors, senior managers
Liao Cheng senior management
Wang Hong Sen senior management
Zhou Song senior management
Tao Wei Kang senior management
Jiang Su Mei senior management
Dai Hong Bin Directors, senior managers
Sun Jie Ping Directors, senior managers

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co Headlines

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