China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600999) Predictability Rank

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

SHSE:600999 China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co.,Ltd SHSE:600999
64 GF Score
Price ¥17.75
GF Value ¥24.55
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co.,Ltd Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co.,Ltd Predictability Rank Related Terms

SHSE:600999
64GF Score
China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co.,Ltd SHSE:600999
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co.,Ltd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600999) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co.,Ltd stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of ¥17.75 is trading 27.7% below its estimated GF Value™ of ¥24.55. GuruFocus considers China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co.,Ltd to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for SHSE:600999:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: ¥24.55 vs. price of ¥17.75 (27.7% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 64/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the SHSE:600999 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co.,Ltd Business Description

Other Exchanges 06099:Hong Kong195H:Germany
Address No. 111, Fuhua Yi Road, Futian Street, Futian District, Guangdong Province, Shenzhen, CHN, 518046
China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co.,Ltd is a financial service provider. The company provides services like investment banking, financial advisory, equity underwriting, asset management, investment advisory, and trading equity securities, among others. Its business is divided into four segments: Wealth management and institutional business; Investment banking; Investment management; and Investment and trading. The Wealth management and institutional business segment, which generates key revenue, engages in the trading of stocks and futures contracts on behalf of clients and includes margin financing, securities lending, and selling financial and other wealth management products.
64GF Score

Get the complete analysis for SHSE:600999

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

¥17.75
Price
¥24.55
GF Value